|
|
|
题名
|
作者
|
年代
|
出处
|
被引量
|
| 1 | CMIP6和CMIP5模式对中国极端温度的模拟能力的评估显示文摘本文评估了CMIP5和CMIP6模式对中国在1979-2005年期间的极端温度的模拟性能。结果表明:CMIP6模式可以很好地再现年最大日最高气温,年最小日最低气温和霜冻日数的空间分布特征。对于年最大日最高气温,持续暖日日数和暖昼,CMIP6模式间的不确定性相对于CMIP5模式有所降低。并且,CMIP6模式也能表现出观测到的极端温度的趋势。然而,CMIP6模式再现暖昼和冷夜的能力仍然不足,特别是在青藏高原上存在明显的冷偏差或者暖偏差对于某些指数。单个CMIP6或CMIP5模式的模拟能力就不同的指数而有所不同,某些模式的模拟能力较为突出。对于一些来自同一机构不同版本的模式,改进的CMIP6模式与CMIP5模式的模拟结果没有明显差异。多模式中位数平均的模拟效果优于大多数单个模式。 | LUO Neng GUO Yan GAO Zhibo CHEN Kexin CHOU Jieming | 2020 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2020，13，6： | 15 |
| 2 | Analyses of Extreme Climate Events over China Based on CMIP5 Historical and Future Simulations显示文摘Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models, climatic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs) are analyzed. In observations, frost days(FD) and low-temperature threshold days(TN10P) show a decreasing trend, and summer days(SU), high-temperature threshold days(TX90P), heavy precipitation days(R20), and the contribution of heavy precipitation days(P95T) show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main characteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90 P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10 P, SU and TX90 P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986–2005 and 1961–80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5,the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble(MME) for FD, SU, TN10 P, TX90 P, R20 and P95 T are-46.9,46.0,-27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes. | YANG Shili FENG Jinming DONG Wenjie CHOU Jieming | 2014 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2014，31，5： | 10 |
| 3 | A Brief Introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and Its Earth Surface Temperature Simulations显示文摘Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper,a new human–earth system model,BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model,is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that,compared to observation,BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005,due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However,the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation,resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty,so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However,the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate. | YANG Shili DONG Wenjie CHOU Jieming FENG Jinming YAN Xiaodong WEI Zhigang YUAN Wenping GUO Yan TANG Yanli HU Jiacong | 2015 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2015，32，12： | 8 |
| 4 | Global warming projections using the human–earth system model BNU-HESM1.0显示文摘Future climate change is usually projected by coupled earth system models under specific emission scenarios designed by integrated assessment models(IAMs),and this offline approach means there is no interaction between the coupled earth system models and the IAMs.This paper introduces a new method to design possible future emission scenarios and corresponding climate change, in which a simple economic and climate damage component is added to the coupled earth system model of Beijing Normal University(BNU-ESM). With the growth of population and technological expertise and the declining emission-to-output ratio described in the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, the projected carbon emission is 13.7 Gt C, resulting in a 2.4 °C warming by the end of the twenty-first century(2080–2099) compared with1980–1999. This paper also suggests the importance of the land and ocean carbon cycle in determining the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. It is hoped that in the near future the next generation of coupled earth system models that include both the natural system and the social dimension will be developed. | Shili Yang Wenjie Dong Jieming Chou Jinming Feng Zhigang Wei Yan Guo Xiaohang Wen Ting Wei Di Tian Xian Zhu Zhiyong Yang | 2016 | Science Bulletin2016，61，23： | 7 |
| 5 | The methodology of quantitative assess economic output of climate change显示文摘A method is introduced in this paper to study the effect of future climatic change on the economy.The researchers determine the economic output of climate change from historical data,and provide a method to quantitatively predict economic output of climate change by an economic-climatic model.A historical reciprocating examination is used to analyze output data for various crops in eight agricultural areas in China and meteorological data from 160 observatories in China from 1980 to 2000.The results show that the methods used are reasonable to a certain extent and good in application. | CHOU JieMing DONG WenJie FENG GuoLin | 2011 | Chinese Science Bulletin2011，56，13： | 1 |
| 6 | Construction of a novel economy-climate model显示文摘An attempt has been made to construct a novel economy-climate model by combining climate change research with agricultural economy research to evaluate the influence of global climate change on grain yields. The insertion of a climate change factor into the economic C-D (Cobb-Dauglas) production function model yields a novel evaluation model, which connects the climate change factor to the eco-nomic variation factor, and the performance and reasonableness of the novel evaluation model are also preliminarily simulated and verified. | CHOU JieMing DONG WenJie YE DuZheng | 2007 | Chinese Science Bulletin2007，52，7： | 1 |
| 7 | Developed and Developing World Contributions to Climate System Change Based on Carbon Dioxide,Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions显示文摘One of the key issues in international climate negotiations is the formulation of targets for emissions reduction for all countries based on the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities'. This formulation depends primarily on the quantitative attribution of the responsibilities of developed and developing countries for historical climate change. Using the Commuity Earth System Model(CESM), we estimate the responsibilities of developed countries and developing countries for climatic change from 1850 to 2005 using their carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The results indicate that developed countries contribute approximately 53%–61%, and developing countries approximately 39%–47%, to the increase in global air temperature, upper oceanic warming, sea-ice reduction in the NH, and permafrost degradation. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity of these changes from 1850 to 2005 is primarily attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases(GHGs)in developed countries. Although uncertainties remain in the climate model and the external forcings used, GHG emissions in developed countries are the major contributor to the observed climate system changes in the 20 th century. | Ting WEI Wenjie DONG Qing YAN Jieming CHOU Zhiyong YANG Di TIAN | 2016 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2016，33，5： | 1 |
您所在的机构暂未开通此部分的功能，请联系管理员