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| 1 | The effect of polyphenolsin olive oil on heart disease risk factors:A randomized trial显示文摘 | Maria-Isabel C Kristiina N Msc P | 2007 | Annals of Internal Medicine2007，145，： | 1 |
| 2 | The 30-Year War on AIDS:Have We Reached the Tipping Point显示文摘 | Thomas C Quinn MD MSc | 2011 | Sexually Transmitted Diseases2011，38，12： | 1 |
| 3 | Presence and distribu- tion of sensory nerve fibers in human peritoneal adhesions显示文摘 | Sulaiman H Gabella G Davis Msc C | 2001 | Ann Surg2001，234，： | 1 |
| 4 | Blockade of Interleukin-12 Function by Protein Vaccination Attenuates Atherosclerosis显示文摘 | Hauer A D Msc C U | 2005 | Circulation2005，112，： | 1 |
| 5 | Radar sea-clutter at low grazing angles 显示文摘 | H C Chan MSc PhD | 1990 | IEE Pro1990，137，2： | 1 |
| 6 | As- sociation of E-cadherin and β-catenin immunoexpression with clinicopathologic features in primary ovarian carci- nomas显示文摘 | Falelra-Rodrlgues C MSc Macedo-pinto Is | 2004 | Human Pathology2004，6，35： | 1 |
| 7 | The Geometry of Bistatic Radar Systems显示文摘 | JACKSON M C MSC B A | 1986 | Communications Radar and Signal Processing IEE Proceedings F1986，133，7： | 1 |
| 8 | Stress, Coping and Mental Well-being in Hospital Nurses显示文摘 | Tyler P Cushway D Msc C | 1992 | Stress Medicine1992，8，2： | 1 |
| 9 | Prediction of therapeutic failure in patients with bleeding peptic ulcer treated with endoscopic injection显示文摘 | Cándid Villanueva MD Dr. Joaquim Balanzó MD Jorge C. Espinós MD Josep M. Domenech MSc PhD Sergio Sáinz MD Josep Call MSc Francisco Vilardell MD DSc | 1993 | Digestive Diseases and Sciences1993，，11： | 1 |
| 10 | Reinforced earth trial structure for dewsbruyring road显示文摘 | Jones C J Msc B F Fice P P | 1990 | Proc Instn civ Engrs Part 11990，88，4： | 1 |
| 11 | Mirtazapine (Remeron?) as Treatment for Non-Mechanical Vomiting after Gastric Bypass显示文摘 | Fabio V Teixeira MD MSc PhD Tania M S Novaretti MD MSc Benedito Pilon MD Priscila G Pereira Maria Fernanda C L Breda | 2005 | Obesity Surgery2005，，5： | 1 |
| 12 | Statistical data driven approach of COVID-19 in Ecuador: R_(0) and R_(t) estimation via new method显示文摘The growth of COVID-19 pandemic throughout more than 213 countries around the world have put a lot of pressures on governments and health services to try to stop the rapid expansion of the pandemic.During 2009,H1N1 Influenza pandemic,statistical and mathematical methods were used to track how the virus spreads around countries.Most of these models that were developed at the beginning of the XXI century are based on the classical susceptible-infected-recovered(SIR)model developed almost a hundred years ago.The evolution of this model allows us to forecast and compute basic and effective reproduction numbers(R_(t) and R_(0)),measures that quantify the epidemic potential of a pathogen and estimates different scenarios.In this study,we present a traditional estimation technique for R_(0) with statistical distributions by best fitting and a Bayesian approach based on continuous feed of prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions and computing real time R_(t).We use data from COVID-19 officially reported cases in Ecuador since the first confirmed case on February 29th.Because of the lack of data,in the case of R_(0) we compare two methods for the estimation of these parameters below exponential growth and maximum likelihood estimation.We do not make any assumption about the evolution of cases due to limited information and we use previous methods to compare scenarios about R_(0) and in the case of R_(t) we used Bayesian inference to model uncertainty in contagious proposing a new modification to the well-known model of Bettencourt and Ribeiro based on a time window of m days to improve estimations.Ecuadorian R_(0) with exponential growth criteria was 3.45 and with the maximum likelihood estimation method was 2.93.The results show that Guayas,Pichincha and Manabíwere the provinces with the highest number of cases due to COVID-19.Some reasons explain the increased transmissibility in these localities:massive events,population density,cities dispersion patterns,and the delayed time of public health actions to contain pandemic.In conclusion,this is a novel approach that allow us to measure infection dynamics and outbreak distribution when not enough detailed data is available.The use of this model can be used to predict pandemic distribution and to implement data-based effective measures. | Raúl Patricio Fernandez-Naranjo MSc Eduardo Vasconez-Gonzalez MD Katherine Simbana-RiveraMD,MSc Lenin Gomez-Barreno MD Juan S.Izquierdo-Condoy MD Domenica Cevallos-RobalinoMD,MPH(c) Esteban Ortiz-Prado MD,MSc,MPH | 2021 | Infectious Disease Modelling2021，6，1： | 0 |
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